The Economist ] by Economist

Author:Economist
Language: eng
Format: mobi
Publisher: Economist
Published: 2016-07-28T20:47:20.671618+00:00

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Charlemagne

Correspondence club

Advice for the British and German leaders on navigating the Brexit mess

Jul 30th 2016 | From the print edition

DEAR THERESA,

At your first cabinet meeting you said that your government would not be “defined by Brexit”. Good luck with that. Britain’s tortured relationship with the European Union has felled most recent Conservative prime ministers, and none faced a task remotely as daunting as the one that confronts you. Disentangling Britain from the EU will be like extracting one glue-slathered octopus from a basket of 27 other ones. It could go horribly wrong.

To avoid that, Charlemagne offers some unsolicited advice. You begin with a reservoir of relief (not goodwill, mind) among your fellow European leaders. Disaster would now be looming had an outlandish Brexiteer such as Boris Johnson muscled his way into Downing Street. You earned respect in Brussels during your six years as home secretary. But that also means that while your EU counterparts may ignore the boosterish bluster emitted by some of your more excitable cabinet colleagues (such as Liam Fox, the new trade secretary), they will expect better from you.

So choose your battles carefully. Do not, for example, dither endlessly on Article 50, the legal device which sets a two-year timetable for quitting the EU. The EU is sick of crises and wants as smooth an exit path for Britain as possible. You will need friends if you are somehow to maintain British banks’ access to the EU market while limiting the right of European workers to move to Britain. Your government is not supposed to conduct trade talks with third parties before Britain has left the EU, but your partners may wink at Mr Fox’s globetrotting if you have earned their trust.

Do your homework on other countries’ domestic politics, for they will complicate your talks. One year from now, for example, your French interlocutor might be not François Hollande but the more obstreperous Nicolas Sarkozy (or even the ghastly Marine Le Pen). Italy might have tumbled into political and financial chaos. So listen to your diplomats. Tour the capitals. If you can bear it, address the European Parliament; MEPs must approve whatever post-Brexit deal you strike, and they adore the attention. And a tip for EU summits: do not say one thing to your fellow leaders inside the room and then the opposite in public. As Mr Cameron can attest, they really, really hate that.

You must expect a fair bit of scrutiny yourself. Some in the EU fear you have staffed your court with jokers and knaves (many were incredulous at your decision to appoint Mr Johnson foreign secretary). Prove them wrong. Ignore advisers gleefully predicting another euro crisis that Britain can exploit; placing bets on imminent disaster is not the way to win friends. And immediately fire anyone who speaks of using Britain’s “security surplus” as a bargaining chip. Britain backs EU and NATO military missions on their merits, not because they may help win sweet trade deals.

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